Information note: The NDC and further domestic action (2021)

We included advice on the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for Aotearoa New Zealand in our first advice to government, Ināia tonu nei (2021). Following this, we provided an information note summarising key facts about the potential impacts of Aotearoa New Zealand attempting more domestic abatement than what was recommended in Ināia tonu nei, rather than relying on offshore mitigation.

This note provides information about how much abatement towards an NDC might be achievable domestically. This note summarises our existing evidence from Ināia tonu nei – it did not contain new analysis, and the conclusions are the same.

Summary

• The domestic budgets we recommended are ambitious and achievable, while being fair, inclusive and equitable, meeting the requirements under Section 5M of the Act.
• We believe the budgets can be met with technologies that are available today. If new technologies develop more quickly in the next few years, then it may be possible to reduce domestic emissions more quickly and at less cost.
• However, even in the most optimistic technology scenarios that we modelled a significant amount of offshore mitigation is needed to meet the current NDC. This is because new technology development and adoption, and behaviour change, take time. Afforestation cannot deliver sufficient removals quickly enough.
• Without rapid adoption of technologies not yet available, reducing domestic net emissions much beyond the levels set out in the recommended budgets through to 2030 is expected to cause damaging and inequitable levels of economic and social disruption.
• In the near term (over the next decade), purchasing offshore mitigation allows Aotearoa to strengthen its NDC while putting the country on the pathway to a low emissions future and managing the impacts on communities and businesses.

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Information note: The NDC and further domestic action (2021) [PDF – 347 KB]