Report on the potential domestic contribution to Aotearoa New Zealand's second nationally determined contribution (2024)
In June 2024 the Government requested a report to help inform the second nationally determined contribution.
This report looks at the levels of domestic emissions reduction that Aotearoa New Zealand could feasibly achieve as part of its second nationally determined contribution (NDC2).
NDC2 will set Aotearoa New Zealand's commitment under the Paris Agreement to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions for the years 2031–35. This report will inform the Government's decision about NDC2, which must be confirmed by February 2025 at the latest. The Government will also consider other factors that are outside the scope of this report, such as offshore mitigation options (that is, paying for emissions reductions overseas).
This report was requested under section 5K of the Climate Change Response Act 2002. The terms of reference and supporting technical documents are available below.
Title: Report on the potential domestic contribution to Aotearoa New Zealand’s second nationally determined contribution
Date: October 2024
ISBN: 978-0-473-73026-0
Download full report:
Report on the potential domestic contribution to Aotearoa New Zealand's second nationally determined contribution [PDF – 891 KB]
Media release:
Commission releases report on domestic contribution to the second nationally determined contribution
Supporting technical documents
Modelling and data from our draft advice on the fourth emissions budget
In our analysis for this report we have used modelling prepared for our draft advice on the fourth emissions budget. For more information, refer to the technical annex, Energy and Emissions in New Zealand (ENZ) results and modelling assumptions for that draft advice.
Other supporting documents specific to our NDC report are available below.
NDC conversion spreadsheet
This workbook calculates figures used in the report. The calculations adjust NDC1 for the 2023 GHG Inventory and convert draft Commission emission scenarios (from ENZ modelling used in our draft advice on the fourth emissions budget) into the corresponding NDC2 target value if there were only a domestic contribution.
All equations used in calculations are explained in Annex 4 of the report.
Download: Data underpinning NDC2 calculations [XLSX – 53 KB]
Sector emissions graphs data
This workbook provides data for the graphs included in the report.
Download: Sector emissions graphs data [XLSX – 73 KB]
Background
In June 2024, the Government requested a report from the Commission on the levels of domestic emissions reduction that Aotearoa New Zealand could feasibly achieve as part of NDC2. This request was made under section 5K of the Climate Change Response Act 2002.
An NDC can also be met through supporting international action, for example by paying for emissions reduction overseas. This international component is outside the scope of the Minister’s request to the Commission.
This request replaced a previous request and terms of reference that the Commission received in 2023. Information about that previous request is available at the end of this page.
More information
Click on the sections below for more info about this report.
Request and terms of reference
Our role is to provide independent, impartial, evidence-based advice to the Government. The Government’s role is to make the decision on what the NDC2 will be.
Given the alignment with our other current work, we based our analysis on the modelling work used in our recent draft advice on the fourth emissions budget and our discussion document on the 2050 target review.
This request from the Minister was made under section 5K of the Climate Change Response Act, which allows the Government of the day to request advice on specific topics at any time, following consultation with the Commission on the Terms of Reference.
Previous NDC advice
We provided advice to the Minister on Aotearoa New Zealand's first NDC. This was included in our first advice to the Government, Ināia tonu nei: A low emissions future.
2023 request
The request for this report replaced a previous request for NDC advice and terms of reference that the Commission received in 2023.
Documents related to that previous request are available below.
- (SUPERSEDED) Terms of Reference – Advice to inform Aotearoa New Zealand’s second Nationally Determined Contribution [PDF – 165 KB]
- (SUPERSEDED) Letter from Minister requesting advice from the Commission to inform Aotearoa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution [PDF – 75.8 KB]
- (SUPERSEDED) Letter from the Commission accepting the Terms of Reference to inform Aotearoa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution [PDF – 270 KB]
More information is available in our media release about this previous request: News: Minister requests advice to inform the Government’s global emissions commitment