NZ ETS unit limits and price control settings for 2025–2029

This report is the 2024 edition of our annual advice to the Minister of Climate Change on updating the NZ ETS unit limits and price control settings, covering the years 2025–2029. The Commission produces this advice as required by section 5ZOA of the Climate Change Response Act 2002.

• Delivered: 29 February 2024
• ISSN: 3021-1956 (Print); 3021-1964 (Online)

Read this report

• Read this report as a web page
• Download this report: Advice on NZ ETS unit limits and price control settings for 2025–2029 [PDF – 1.07 MB]  

Supporting documents

Technical Annex 1: Unit limit settings

This technical annex and accompanying spreadsheet provide further information on the data, methodology, and key assumptions we have taken to reach our final unit limit settings recommendations. These document should be read alongside Part 3: Unit limits of our advice.

Download:

• Technical Annex 1: Unit limit settings [.PDF – 876 KB]
• Technical Annex 1: Supporting spreadsheet [.XLSX – 561 KB]

Technical Annex 2: Assessment of accordance

This ‘Assessment of accordance’ sets out how we have considered the requirements of section 30GC of the Act: that recommended NZ ETS settings are in accordance with emissions budgets, the nationally determined contribution (NDC), and the 2050 target.

Download:

• Technical Annex 2: Assessment of accordance [.PDF – 465 KB]

NZ ETS Forestry Model

This model projects allocations and surrenders of forestry NZUs since 2008, subject to user-variable assumptions. It contains data provided by the Ministry of Primary Industries. Within our analysis for NZ ETS settings advice, we have used this model to develop estimates of units held for post-1989 forest harvest liabilities, and of forestry emissions outside of the NZ ETS.

This model should be read in conjunction with the accompanying information sheet. Additional information discussing the assumptions applied within the model is detailed in Technical Annex 1.

Download:

• NZ ETS Forestry Model: Information sheet [.PDF – 237 KB]
• NZ ETS Forestry Model: Workbook [.XLSX – 1.95 KB]

More information

• Media release: Excess units in NZ ETS pose a risk to meeting climate goals
• Read our frequently asked questions about this advice.
• Read more about the NZ ETS and the Commission's role, or explore our other advice to Government on the NZ ETS.