Draft advice on the fourth emissions budget period (2036–2040), and whether emissions budgets one, two, and three should be revised

First published 8 April 2024
Last updated 11 June 2024

This web page provides the text of our Draft advice on the fourth emissions budget period (2036–2040), and whether emissions budgets one, two, and three should be revised (released 8 April 2024).

Links to a technical annex and supporting material are available in the final section of this web page.

This draft advice is also available as a downloadable file:
Draft advice on the fourth emissions budget period [PDF - 9.6 MB]

This is one of three closely related projects, alongside:

• 2024 review of the 2050 emissions target
• Review on whether Aotearoa New Zealand's 2050 emissions reduction target should be amended to include emissions from international shipping and aviation – and if so, how

Consultation on this document took place between 8 April and 31 May 2024. Our final advice will be delivered to the Minister of Climate Change and published before 31 December 2024. For more information or to make a submission, please visit our consultation site.

Corrections

Updates have been made to this document to correct errors in the previous version.

• In the Introduction, figure 1.2 (p. 39), 'offshore migration' has been corrected to 'offshore mitigation'.
• In Chapter 3, figure 3.14 (p. 78) previously listed gross emissions in 2021 as 1.14 MtCH4 and 0.64 in 2050. This has been corrected to 1.30 MtCH4 in 2021 and 0.8 in 2050. The listed reductions in the figure were accurate.
• In Chapter 4, 'Energy' (p. 85) previously stated 'electricity demand would increase by 59% from 2022 to 2050'. This has been corrected to 64%.
• In Chapter 4, 'Energy' (p. 85) previously stated 'new data centres would be built requiring an additional 600 MW capacity of electricity generation'. This has been corrected to 'new data centres approximately equivalent to 600MW of new load'.
• In Chapter 4, 'Transport' (p. 93) previously stated 'would reduce overall distances travelled by vehicles by 15% in 2040'. This has been corrected to 18%.
• In Chapter 4, ‘Agriculture’ (p. 99) previously stated ‘methane reducing technologies would reduce emissions by 4 MtCO2e in the fourth budget period.’ This has been corrected to 1.05 MtCO2e.
• In Chapter 4, ‘Agriculture’ (p. 99) previously stated 'We assume land currently used for dairy is converted to horticulture at a rate of 2000 ha per year'. This has been corrected to 1,103 ha per year.

For more information about these changes, please contact haveyoursay@climatecommission.govt.nz.

Accessibility note

This document includes images and tables that are not accessible for people using assistive technologies such as screen readers. If you would like to access information in this document in a different format, please email us at hello@climatecommission.govt.nz.