Our upcoming work

The Commission's role is to produce independent advice to the Government on reducing emissions and responding to the impacts of climate change, as well as monitoring and reporting on the Government's progress towards Aotearoa New Zealand's climate goals.

We keep this page updated with the latest information about our work programme – including what we're working on now, what's coming up soon, and how you can get involved.

Below is a chronological list of our upcoming work. Click 'Read more' to read a description of each piece of work, or scroll further down the page to browse all descriptions (which include links to more information and related documents).

Advice on NZ ETS unit limits and price control settings for 2026–2030

Next due: April 2025

Each year, the Commission must provide advice to the Minister to recommend limits on units available each year and the price controls that operate at auctions in the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS). Our advice covers the following five years, with settings recommended for each year.

The purpose of our advice is to help ensure that the units available in the NZ ETS accord with the emissions budgets, nationally determined contributions, and the 2050 target (as set out in section 5ZOA of the Climate Change Response Act 2002).

Our advice feeds into the Government’s annual update of the regulations that set limits and price control settings for the NZ ETS.

The next advice will be delivered to the Minister in April 2025. Read more about our next advice.

Browse our previous advice on the NZ ETS.

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Monitor and report on progress towards meeting emissions budgets, emissions reduction plans and the 2050 target

Next annual report due mid 2025

First periodic report due 2027

The Commission has an important role in monitoring and reviewing Aotearoa New Zealand's progress towards its emissions reduction goals. That includes monitoring progress towards meeting emissions budgets, emissions reduction plans and the 2050 target. The insights and lessons learned from monitoring can in turn help inform the Commission’s future advice on opportunities to reduce emissions, limitations in Aotearoa New Zealand's approach and gaps in progress.

The Climate Change Response Act 2002 provides that there are two aspects to the Commission's monitoring function.

First, the Commission will provide an annual report that will include, for the most recent year of the emissions budget period for which data is available:

• measured emissions and removals for that year;
• the latest projections of current and future emissions and removals; and
• an assessment of the adequacy of the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan and progress in its implementation, including any new opportunities to reduce emissions.

The Commission’s first annual monitoring report on emissions reductions was released in July 2024.

Second, the Commission will provide a report at the end of each emissions budget period (approximately every five years), evaluating progress made in an emissions budget period, including:

• an evaluation of how well the emissions reduction plan has contributed to progress;
• recommendations on any banking and borrowing across emissions budgets that would be appropriate; and
• an assessment of the amount of offshore mitigation required to meet the emissions budget for that period.

These less frequent reports must be prepared no later than two years after the end of the relevant emissions budget period. Aotearoa New Zealand’s first emissions budget covering the period 2022–2025, meaning the first of these retrospective reports is expected to come out in 2027.

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Progress reports on the National Adaptation Plans

Next due August 2026

Every two years, the Commission will provide a progress report on the implementation and effectiveness of the Government’s National Adaptation Plan. The first progress report was delivered in August 2024.

Each progress report must:

• assess the progress of implementation of the Plan
• judge how well the Plan achieves its objectives and responds to risks
• identify barriers to implementation and effectiveness, and how those can be managed
• include any other relevant matters
• consider the issues, where relevant, listed under section 5M of the Climate Change Response Act.

Read more about this work.

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National Climate Change Risk Assessment

First due 2026

Every six years from 2026, the Commission will deliver a national climate change risk assessment (NCCRA). These reports are required under section 5ZQ of the Climate Change Response Act 2002.

The reports provide a national picture of how the country may be affected by climate change-related hazards. They also identify the most significant risks and opportunities, and steps to take to address them. The risk assessments enable the government to prioritise action, including through the government's national adaptation plans.

We are calling for evidence to inform our work on the next risk assessment. Submissions close 31 March 2025. Read more and submit evidence on our consultation platform: Have Your Say | Climate Change Commission

Read more about these risk assessments.

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Provide advice for preparation of emissions budgets

Next due 2030

Every five years, the Commission produces independent expert advice on what the emissions budgets should be to help Aotearoa New Zealand meet the 2050 emissions reductions target. In our first advice to Government, Ināia tonu nei, we provided advice on the first three emissions budgets (from 2022 to 2035). These have now been set by Government.

We advise the Minister on:

• The recommended quantity of emissions in the next budget period, stating the amount by which emissions of each greenhouse gas should be reduced to meet the relevant emissions budget and the 2050 target.
• The rules that will apply to measure progress towards meeting the emissions budget and the 2050 target.
• How the emissions budget, and the 2050 target, may realistically be met, including by pricing and policy methods.
• The proportions of an emissions budget that is to be met by domestic emissions reductions and domestic removals alongside the appropriate limit on offshore mitigation that may be used to meet an emissions budget.

When we prepare emissions budget advice, we will also assess if there is a need to revise any notified emissions budgets (that have not yet started) due to methodological changes in the way emissions are measured and reported or significant changes to the considerations on which the emissions budget was based.

We provided our advice on the fourth emissions budget (2036–2040) in 2024.  Consultation on our draft advice took place in April–May 2024, and we provided our final advice in November 2024.

Read more about this type of advice.

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Review the 2050 Emissions Targets

Next due 2030

The Commission must review emissions budgets every five years starting in 2024. At the same time as this, we must provide independent expert advice on whether any changes should be made to Aotearoa New Zealand’s legislated 2050 targets. These could be changes to what the targets are, what gases they apply to, when the targets have to be met by, and how much can be met in Aotearoa New Zealand or paid for overseas.

We produced our first review of the target in 2024. Consultation on a discussion document about this review and on whether emissions from international shipping and aviation should be included in the target took place in April–May 2024. We provided our final report on both matters to the Minister in November 2024.

Read more about our reviews of the 2050 target.

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