Our upcoming work

The Commission's role is to produce independent advice to the Government on reducing emissions and responding to the impacts of climate change, as well as monitoring and reporting on the Government's progress towards Aotearoa New Zealand's climate goals.

We keep this page updated with the latest information about our work programme – including what we're working on now, what's coming up soon, and how you can get involved.

Below is a chronological list of our upcoming work. Click 'Read more' to read a description of each piece of work, or scroll further down the page to browse all descriptions (which include links to more information and related documents).

Provide advice for preparation of emissions budgets

Next due December 2024

Every five years, the Commission produces independent expert advice on what the emissions budgets should be to help Aotearoa New Zealand meet the 2050 emissions reductions target. In our first advice to Government, Ināia tonu nei, we provided advice on the first three emissions budgets (from 2022 to 2035). These have now been set by Government.

We are preparing our advice for the fourth emissions budget (for the period 2036–2040). Consultation on this took place between 8 April and 31 May 2024.

We advise the Minister on:

• The recommended quantity of emissions in the next budget period, stating the amount by which emissions of each greenhouse gas should be reduced to meet the relevant emissions budget and the 2050 target.
• The rules that will apply to measure progress towards meeting the emissions budget and the 2050 target.
• How the emissions budget, and the 2050 target, may realistically be met, including by pricing and policy methods.
• The proportions of an emissions budget that is to be met by domestic emissions reductions and domestic removals alongside the appropriate limit on offshore mitigation that may be used to meet an emissions budget.

In providing emissions budget advice, we have regard to a number of matters, including whether the budget we are advising on is technically and economically achievable. The exact matters that we must consider are set out in section 5ZC of the Climate Change Response Act.

When we prepare emissions budget advice, we will also assess if there is a need to revise any notified emissions budgets (that have not yet started) due to methodological changes in the way emissions are measured and reported or significant changes to the considerations on which the emissions budget was based.

Read more about this work.

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Review of inclusion of emissions from international shipping and aviation in 2050 target

Due December 2024

Currently, the 2050 target includes emissions from domestic shipping and domestic aviation (which are covered by the Paris Agreement) but excludes emissions from shipping and aviation to and from Aotearoa New Zealand. Globally, international aviation emissions are being addressed within the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and international shipping emissions are being addressed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

The Commission will provide advice on whether the 2050 target should be amended to include emissions from international shipping and aviation, and if so, how the target should be amended.

Consultation on this work took place between 8 April and 31 May 2024. Our final advice must be provided by 31 December 2024.

Read more about this work.

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Review the 2050 Emissions Targets

Next due December 2024

The Commission must review emissions budgets every five years starting in 2024. At the same time as this, we must provide independent expert advice on whether any changes should be made to Aotearoa New Zealand’s legislated 2050 targets. These could be changes to what the targets are, what gases they apply to, when the targets have to be met by, and how much can be met in Aotearoa New Zealand or paid for overseas.

Consultation on this review took place between 8 April and 31 May 2024.

Read more about this work.

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Advice on NZ ETS unit limits and price control settings for 2026–2030

Next due: March 2025

Each year, the Commission must provide advice to Minister on the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS), including recommending limits on units available each year in the NZ ETS, and price control settings. The Commission’s advice on this will cover a rolling five-year period, with settings recommended for each year.

The purpose of our advice is to help ensure that the NZ ETS operates effectively and in accordance with the emissions budgets, nationally determined contributions, and the 2050 target (as set out in the Climate Change Response Act 2002). Our advice feeds into the Government’s annual update of the regulations that set limits and price control settings for the NZ ETS.

This annual advice is next due in March 2025.

Browse our previous advice on the NZ ETS.

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Monitor and report on progress towards meeting emissions budgets, emissions reduction plans and the 2050 target

Next annual report due mid 2025

First periodic report due 2027

The Commission has an important role in monitoring and reviewing Aotearoa New Zealand's progress towards its emissions reduction goals. That includes monitoring progress towards meeting emissions budgets, emissions reduction plans and the 2050 target. The insights and lessons learned from monitoring can in turn help inform the Commission’s future advice on opportunities to reduce emissions, limitations in Aotearoa New Zealand's approach and gaps in progress.

The Climate Change Response Act 2002 provides that there are two aspects to the Commission's monitoring function.

First, the Commission will provide an annual report that will include, for the most recent year of the emissions budget period for which data is available:

• measured emissions and removals for that year;
• the latest projections of current and future emissions and removals; and
• an assessment of the adequacy of the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan and progress in its implementation, including any new opportunities to reduce emissions.

The Commission’s first annual monitoring report on emissions reductions was released in July 2024.

Second, the Commission will provide a report at the end of each emissions budget period (approximately every five years), evaluating progress made in an emissions budget period, including:

• an evaluation of how well the emissions reduction plan has contributed to progress;
• recommendations on any banking and borrowing across emissions budgets that would be appropriate; and
• an assessment of the amount of offshore mitigation required to meet the emissions budget for that period.

These less frequent reports must be prepared no later than two years after the end of the relevant emissions budget period. With New Zealand’s first emissions budget covering the period 2022–2025, the first of these retrospective reports is expected to come out in 2027.

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Progress reports on the National Adaptation Plans

Next due August 2026

Every two years, the Commission will provide a progress report on the implementation and effectiveness of the Government’s National Adaptation Plan. The first progress report was delivered in August 2024.

Each progress report must:

• assess the progress of implementation of the Plan
• judge how well the Plan achieves its objectives and responds to risks
• identify barriers to implementation and effectiveness, and how those can be managed
• include any other relevant matters
• consider the issues, where relevant, listed under section 5M of the Climate Change Response Act.

Read more about this work.

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National Climate Change Risk Assessment

First due 2026

The first National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA) was delivered by the Ministry for the Environment in 2020. From 2026, we will be responsible for delivering the National Climate Change Risk Assessment to Government every six years.

The National Climate Change Risk Assessment provides a national picture of how New Zealand may be affected by climate change-related hazards. It:

• identifies the most significant risks and opportunities for New Zealand
• highlights gaps in the information and data needed to properly assess and manage the risks and opportunities.

Read more about this work.

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