Data and modelling

To share our thinking and provide insight into how we carry out our analysis and arrive at our advice, we publish a selection of the data and modelling that sits behind our work.

We publish these alongside the reports in which they have been used. You can also explore information about them in the list below, including a description of the data and modelling, a list of the reports where it has been used, and a link to the page where you can find the files.

Modelling and data releases

Modelling and data for our 2024 consultation on the emissions reduction target and emissions budgets

This modelling and data was used in our Draft advice on the fourth emissions budget, Discussion document: 2024 review of the 2050 emissions reduction target, and Discussion document: Review on whether emissions from international shipping and aviation should be included in the 2050 target. We consulted on these documents in April–May 2024.

Parts of this were also used in our Report on the potential domestic contribution to Aotearoa New Zealand's second nationally determined contribution (October 2024).

This page includes:

• Assumptions and results datasets for the ENZ and C-PLAN models used to inform our analysis
• ENZ and C-PLAN model releases and guides
• Temperature modelling results
• Electricity market modelling
• Analysis of agricultural methane mitigation technologies
• Analysis and workforce modelling on process heat decarbonisation
• Expert review of our modelling

 ►  Read more and download files

NZ ETS Forestry model

This model projects allocations and surrenders of forestry NZUs since 2008, subject to user-variable assumptions. It contains data provided by the Ministry of Primary Industries. We used this model in our analysis for our advice on NZ ETS unit limits and price control settings for 2025–2029 to develop estimates of units held for post-1989 forest harvest liabilities, and of forestry emissions outside of the NZ ETS.

This page includes:

• NZ ETS Forestry model workbook
• Accompanying information sheet

►  Read more and download files

Data and modelling for Ināia tonu nei (2021)

This page provides information about the data and modelling that informed our analysis in Ināia tonu nei: a low emissions future for Aotearoa.

 This page includes:

• Underlying data for all figures and charts used in Ināia tonu nei.
• Information about, and requests to access, the models:
  • Energy and Emissions in New Zealand (ENZ)
  • Climate Policy Analysis (C-PLAN) economic model
  • Distributional Impacts Microsimulation for Employment (DIM-E)
• ENZ model assumptions and result datasets
• Macroeconomic modelling results and dataset
• Distributional impacts (employment) modelling results
• Electricity market modelling
• NDC calculations
• Expert review of our modelling

 ►  Read more and download files

Data and modelling for our 2021 draft advice to Government

This page provides information about the data and modelling used in our 2021 draft advice, which eventually became Ināia tonu nei.

This page includes:

• A data set for the emissions path and additional scenarios we recommend in our draft advice and evidence reports.
• The underlying data for the figures in the Commission’s 2021 draft advice report.
• A slide deck from our modelling consultants introducing the Commission’s C-PLAN model and summarising the results we drew on for our draft advice.
• Distributional impacts (employment) modelling results.
• Results (and some inputs) from the C-PLAN model that we drew on in our draft advice

►  Read more and download files